Mesoscale Discussion 0684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of West Texas and the Trans Pecos

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 231912Z - 232045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected through the
   afternoon/evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...19Z surface analysis shows a dryline across West Texas
   into the Trans Pecos with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
   and dewpoints ranging from the 20s west of the dryline to the mid
   60s east of the dryline. Storms have started to form in the
   well-mixed airmass in a convergent zone near the Trans Pecos. As
   these storms mature and move eastward, they will encounter a richer
   theta-e airmass where very strong MLCAPE around 3500 to 4000 J/kg is
   present. Additional storms have developed in the higher terrain of
   northern Mexico and are expected to cross the Rio Grande in the next
   few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows 25 to 30 knots of effective shear
   across the region which should support storm organization. 
   Scattered storm coverage is expected with some supercells eventually
   congealing into multiple multicell clusters. Both large hail and
   severe winds will be possible with these storms with wind likely
   becoming the primary hazard by this evening as storms grow upscale
   into multiple clusters. Mid-level lapse rates around 8.5 C/km and
   the expectation for some supercell structures will support a threat
   for very large hail, especially this afternoon and early evening
   before storms become less discrete.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29110367 29690383 30340366 30960324 32090290 32500221
               32550154 31850057 29960102 29530134 29710188 29710223
               29640257 29000290 28910313 28910313 29110367