Mesoscale Discussion 0686
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...and
   northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232014Z - 232115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A small linear segment/MCS has evolved in southeastern
   Indiana and may pose a damaging-wind risk for downstream areas in
   Ohio and Kentucky.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for this
   activity.

   DISCUSSION...Initial convection in central Indiana has evolved into
   a forward-propagating linear segment east of Indianapolis.  The
   organization is likely due to maturing cold pools and propagation
   along an effective warm front extending southeastward from the
   storms into southwestern Ohio and the Ohio River vicinity.  The
   storms are migrating southeastward into an airmass characterized by
   moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and modest deep shear
   (around 30 knots or so), favoring organization.  An isolated
   damaging wind threat is expected with this MCS over the next couple
   of hours or so, and its longevity will likely depend on regenerating
   convection along and south of the ongoing convection and its
   trailing outflow.  Isolated cells south to southwest of the ongoing
   convection may also pose a brief/isolated severe threat due to gusty
   winds, though deep shear weakens with southward extent, suggesting a
   lesser chance of any organization/upscale growth.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   40038534 39968464 39568381 38988319 38508326 38258368
               38278436 38648541 38858599 39168625 39528617 39728591
               40038534