Mesoscale Discussion 0687
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...far southwest Nebraska...and
   northeast Wyoming.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232018Z - 232215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two is possible later this
   afternoon/early this evening. However, considerable uncertainty
   exists whether storm initiation is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Occasional breaks in the mid-level cloud deck reveal
   cumulus along a dryline in far eastern Colorado on visible satellite
   imagery. Convergence is locally enhanced in this region along a
   dryline bulge. A weak-mid level shortwave is moving across the area
   this afternoon which may provide sufficient ascent for a storm or
   two to form along this dryline. However, mid-level cloud cover has
   limited heating somewhat which likely has had a weakening impact on
   the dryline circulation. Therefore, storm formation in this region
   is uncertain this afternoon/evening. However, if a storm does
   develop, the environment will be favorable for supercell mode given
   MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective shear around 35 knots. If any
   supercells can form, they will have a primary threat for large hail,
   with some very large hail possible given the very steep mid-level
   lapse rates (>9 C/km). Additionally, significant low-level
   directional shear will support a tornado threat, especially given
   the discrete storm mode. 

   Given the uncertainties about storm likelihood and the expectation
   for isolated coverage if any storms do form, a watch is unlikely.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38700210 39430228 40100248 40460233 40750179 40310110
               39440093 38720123 38530176 38700210