Mesoscale Discussion 0688
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...Central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232035Z - 232230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible late this
   afternoon/evening across North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...A stationary front has sharpened across west central
   North Dakota today with temperatures in the 50s and 60s to the north
   and in the 70s to near 80 south of this boundary. Mid-level ascent
   associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough currently
   in eastern Wyoming should lead to storm development along this
   boundary this evening. Storm motion is expected to mostly be to the
   cool side of the boundary which may be a limiting factor to a more
   widespread severe weather threat. However, MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg
   on the warm side of this boundary and increasing effective shear to
   around 30-35 knots will support organized multi-cell to occasional
   supercell structures with any stronger storms which can remain
   rooted near the stationary front. Large hail and damaging winds will
   be the primary threat from this activity, but stretching of
   low-level vorticity along this boundary could support a brief
   tornado or two.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45950355 46900222 47310154 48280098 49060062 49029864
               47589957 45920093 45950355