Mesoscale Discussion 0689
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...Western South Dakota...eastern Wyoming...the
   Nebraska Panhandle...and far northeast Colorado.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

   Valid 232057Z - 232230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across watch 208 late
   this afternoon and into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A large cluster of storms has developed from the Black
   Hills eastward across western South Dakota. Significant storm
   interference has led to decreasing MRMS MESH in the last 30 minutes
   across much of the region. The best chance for large and very large
   hail will be with storms along the southern and eastern portion of
   this cluster where storms have easier access to a buoyant airmass
   and where storms can remain somewhat more discrete. 

   Farther south, storms in southeast Wyoming have struggled thus far
   as dewpoints have fallen into the upper 30s and MLCAPE is only
   around 500 to 1000 J/kg. However, dewpints are in the upper 40s
   20-30 miles to the east and these storms are expected to intensify
   in the next 1 to 2 hours as they encounter this higher theta-e
   airmass. 

   In addition, some cumulus can be seen through the mid-level clouds
   in northeast Colorado. Storm development is possible in this area
   late this afternoon/evening. MLCAPE is around 1500 J/kg with
   effective shear around 35 knots and thus, supercells will be
   possible if any storms can develop across this area. Given the
   expectation for discrete storm mode and steep mid-level lapse rates
   (~8 C/km), very large hail is possible.

   ..Bentley.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   41210460 41780501 44760500 45600444 45900380 45910239
               45890180 45070131 43730138 41060147 40030173 39880213
               40160349 41210460