Mesoscale Discussion 0690
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...West Texas...Western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...210...

   Valid 232225Z - 240030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 210
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across weather watches 209
   and 210 late this afternoon into early evening. Large hail and wind
   damage will be the primary threats although an isolated brief
   tornado threat will also exist.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 999 mb meso low in
   southeast New Mexico. A dryline is present from near Midland
   north-northeastward into the central Texas Panhandle. East of the
   dryline, a moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the
   60s F. This is contributing to moderate instability across a large
   part of west Texas extending northward into western Oklahoma. The
   strongest instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg) is located near
   Lubbock where a cluster of severe storms is ongoing. The WSR-88D VWP
   at Lubbock has 0-6 km of 35 to 40 kt with directional shear some
   directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This combined with
   700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km will be favorable for
   supercells with large hail. Damaging wind gusts will also be likely
   with supercells and the more organized multicells. Also, enough
   low-level shear is present for an isolated tornado threat. Any
   tornado is expected to be brief.

   ..Broyles.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29220077 29640131 29790160 29860236 29750267 29500281
               29260287 29080312 29060345 29160361 29240378 30410379
               30670346 30760359 31390299 31390287 31250278 32090282
               32120217 32980220 33000259 34340260 34320198 34760201
               34780160 36050163 36050110 36540109 36540097 36930093
               36940001 36570000 36599962 36149959 36149932 35099939
               34979935 34839925 34849915 34819914 34689908 34569915
               34449923 34369919 34459939 34449941 34419945 33389945
               33410001 32950000 32950016 32110015 32080026 31600023
               31590012 30290010 30260073 29490066 29220077