Mesoscale Discussion 0693
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...Central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

   Valid 232327Z - 240100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing severe convection is expected to continue across
   WW208. Some intensification across the southern end of the watch is
   possible as storms encounter warmer and more moist air. Large hail
   and severe winds will be the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...Severe storms are ongoing across WW208 with two well
   defined regimes. To the north, near Rapid City, a cluster of strong
   multi-cells and occasional supercells will continue to pose a risk
   for large hail and strong winds. SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE
   of 1000-1500 J/kg with around 40 kt of effective shear. Steep
   mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km will likely continue to support a
   large hail threat for a couple more hours. This is corroborated by
   the recent reports of golf ball sized hail east of Rapid City, SD.
   Though hail will remain a threat, storm interactions resulting in
   upscale growth should favor an increasing damaging wind threat as
   outflow consolidates. 

   Farther southeast across the Nebraska Panhandle, a cluster of storms
   will likely continue to the east along the interstate 80 corridor.
   here 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present along with 40-50 kt of
   effective shear. Intermittent supercell structure has been noted
   with this storm. Some intensification appears possible with deeper
   moisture being advected in from the east. Large hail and damaging
   winds will be the primary threat with the cluster, though the
   increasing low-level moisture and shear may support a tornado or two
   later this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   40580399 45710473 45730185 40570134 40580399