Mesoscale Discussion 0695
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest and West-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240102Z - 240330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should continue across parts of
   southwest and west-central Kansas over the next couple of hours.
   Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. Weather
   watch is not expected but the situation will continue to be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 997 mb low in southeast
   Colorado. A dryline is present from the Texas Panhandle into
   southwest Kansas with a moist airmass in place to the east of the
   dryline. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F are
   contributing to moderate instability. Thunderstorms are developing
   along the western edge of moderate instability to the southwest of
   Dodge City. The WSR-88D VWP at Dodge City shows 0-6 km shear of 40
   to 45 kt with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. 700
   to 500 mb lapse rates are very steep approaching 9.0 C/km. For this
   reason, left-moving supercells with large hail will continue to be
   possible over the next couple of hours. Again, the severe threat
   should be too isolated to warrant weather watch issuance.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37139975 37609903 38129878 38829873 39199959 39100030
               38440072 37290090 37139975