Mesoscale Discussion 0701
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241721Z - 241915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms expected this afternoon
   and evening. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis shows a dryline extending from the
   Brewster/Presido county border north northeastward to just east of
   Fort Stockton and northward to near Andrews, TX. Scattered storm
   development is expected along and ahead of this dryline through the
   afternoon and into the evening. Initial convective attempts in
   Terrell County, TX and support from SPC mesoanalysis suggest CINH
   has mostly eroded across this region. Additional storms are also
   expected to form in the mountains of northern Mexico and move
   northeastward into Texas later this afternoon. Strong instability
   with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg and effective shear around 25 to
   30 knots per SPC mesoanalysis suggest a combination of both
   multicell and supercell storm modes are possible. Very steep
   mid-level lapse rates around 9 C/km per 12Z DRT and MAF RAOB suggest
   the potential for very large hail in addition do severe wind gusts.
   Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch will
   likely be issued in the next 2 hours.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29010360 30100307 30890279 31640256 32790233 32810147
               32830087 32690051 31610037 31490044 29430076 29260091
               29490122 29660144 29710162 29750213 29710245 29640263
               29380277 29160282 29000301 28930312 28930336 29010360