Mesoscale Discussion 0702
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Texas and western Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241739Z - 241915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Numerous storms in eastern Texas and western Louisiana
   will eventually congeal into one or more clusters with an isolated
   large hail and damaging wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...Widespread thunderstorms have developed in eastern
   Texas in the last 2 hours in an uncapped airmass with temperatures
   in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. Storm organization has
   been limited with effective shear around 20 knots per GRK and HGX
   VWP. However, strong instability around 3000 J/kg and mid-level
   lapse rates around 7 to 7.5 C/km (per SPC mesoanalysis) will support
   isolated large hail and damaging winds. The ongoing activity is
   expected to congeal into one or more clusters this afternoon which
   may increase the damaging wind threat somewhat, but weak
   tropospheric flow will limit the overall severe weather threat.
   Given the marginal threat from these storms, a watch is unlikely.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29569699 30449739 31409734 32749667 33499590 33739512
               33589407 33159303 32339233 31339238 30339250 30069346
               29449475 29129594 29569699