Mesoscale Discussion 0703
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northern South Carolina...western North
   Carolina...west-southwest Virginia...far southeast West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241744Z - 241945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany some of the
   strongest storms, particularly where clustering may occur. Given the
   overall localized, brief nature of the damaging gust threat, a WW
   issuance is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...With continued strong diurnal heating of a moist
   airmass, convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity
   along the lee of the Applachians. Given surface high pressure
   present across the Mid-Atlantic, low-level trajectories indicates
   weak upslope flow, further contributing to convective coverage. The
   heated, moist low-level airmass is contributing to over 1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are rather poor (around 5.5
   C/km), with overall weak tropospheric flow and subsequent shear in
   place, based on RAP forecast soundings. As such, a couple damaging
   gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts are the most likely
   concern. 

   Current mosaic radar indicates particularly higher concentrations of
   cells across far western NC and the WV/VA border areas. Should these
   areas experience any convective cell mergers, a greater chance for a
   damaging gust or two will exist. Nonetheless, the overall severe
   coverage is expected to remain sparse enough to preclude a WW
   issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   34988314 35968244 37168139 38088069 38408026 38447954
               38217904 37567868 36397854 35547928 34897987 34478096
               34988314