Mesoscale Discussion 0704
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Far southeast Nebraska...Southwest
   Iowa...and northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241813Z - 241945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected in the next
   1 to 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and composite radar imagery as well
   as 18Z surface observations show a well pronounced MCV just north of
   Wichita. The area east and northeast of the this MCV has
   destabilized with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid
   to upper 60s. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCIN has mostly eroded across
   this region with MLCAPE ranging from 1000 to 2500 J/kg with the
   greatest instability in northern Missouri. Therefore, more
   widespread storm development is expected in the next 1 to 2 hours in
   the vicinity of the MCV and the outflow boundaries in northeast
   Kansas and northwest Missouri. Evidence of a compact mid-level
   circulation with enhanced flow can be seen on the ICT and TWX VWP
   where mid-level winds are 40 knots out of the west-southwest and 50
   knots out of the southeast respectively. This stronger flow will aid
   in storm organization later this afternoon as the airmass ahead and
   east of this MCV continues to destabilize and more robust updraft
   development begins. Effective shear will support some supercell
   storm modes with a threat for both large hail and damaging winds. 

   In addition, there is a conditional tornado threat in the vicinity
   of the outflow boundaries and where surface winds can remain backed
   ahead and east of the MCV. While low-level flow isn't all that
   strong, there will be some low-level turning where winds remain
   backed and the EAX VWP shows a belt of 30 knot southwesterly winds
   between 2-3 km suggesting some speed shear in this vicinity.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38169486 38339620 38639693 39309723 40209681 41129597
               41689551 42069387 41819293 40639279 40049299 39289341
               38259423 38169486