Mesoscale Discussion 0705
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...West central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241915Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells are possible later this
   afternoon with a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Convergence has increased near the triple point in west
   central Kansas over the past hour as evidenced by the increased cu
   clustering across the region. Temperatures are currently in the
   upper 70s but should increase into the mid 80s in the next 1 to 2
   hours. With dewpoints in upper 50s to low 60s, MLCAPE is expected to
   peak around 2000 to 2500 J/kg in the region later this afternoon.
   This area is currently capped, but storms are expected to form by
   late this afternoon as CINH erodes across the area.

   This region lies on the eastern periphery of stronger mid-level flow
   associated with the jet streak in eastern Colorado. Enough of this
   stronger flow should overspread this region to support a supercell
   wind profile. The primary threat will be large hail and damaging
   winds. As the low-level jet strengthens after 00Z, a briefly higher
   tornado threat may exist before continued upscale growth leads to a
   messier/more linear storm mode. 

   Once convective initiation occurs, likely in the next 2-3 hours, a
   watch may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37240020 37260093 37260129 37670142 38010135 38210106
               38890029 39199966 38679902 38299886 37569867 37249915
               37240020