Mesoscale Discussion 0706
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into extreme northeast
   New Mexico...southwestern Kansas...and the western Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241928Z - 242130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms are likely to develop through the rest
   of the afternoon into the evening hours. The greatest chance for
   severe will be across southeast Colorado, where supercellular
   structure may be achieved. Convective trends will continue to be
   monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently been noted along the
   eastern slopes of the Rockies as lift due to low-level upslope flow,
   and upper-level support provided by an approaching mid-level
   trough/500 mb vortmax, are contributing to deep-layer ascent. 7-8
   C/km lapse rates are contributing to modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE based on the latest Mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings).
   However, low-level moisture is scant (upper 40s F dewpoints, with at
   least 20F T/TD spreads noted), limiting instability. A persistent
   cloud deck along the CO/KS border area, associated with a slowly
   southward drifting cold front, has also hampered the eastward extent
   of destabilization, suggesting that the overall buoyancy corridor in
   eastern CO is narrow.

   Stronger flow above 500 mb is contributing to 40-50 knot effective
   bulk shear values, suggesting that storm organization is likely with
   the more intense, sustained updrafts. Buoyancy and shear are most
   favorable across far southeast CO/extreme northeast NM, south of the
   cold front. With 100+ m2/s2 effective SRH expected by late
   afternoon, a couple transient to potentially longer-lived supercell
   structures are expected, posing the greatest risk for severe in CO,
   as suggested by 12Z HREF and the last several runs of the HRRR. The
   sfc-700 mb deep sub-cloud layer suggests that rear-flank downdrafts
   may be cold enough to support outflow dominant structures, with
   large hail and damaging gusts being the primary threats. Farther
   north, smaller line segments and relatively shorter lived
   multicellular storms are expected, with a couple damaging
   gusts/severe stones possible. 

   Given the modest severe threat with potential supercell structures,
   convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a WW may be
   needed sometime later this afternoon.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36590428 37500470 38290494 38700457 38770361 38800250
               38550154 38140143 37480160 36920206 36440309 36590428