Mesoscale Discussion 0707
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest Missouri into western
   Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241958Z - 242200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts and perhaps some large hail may
   accompany the stronger storm cores. The severe threat is expected to
   remain isolated enough to preclude a WW issuance at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture is
   currently pivoting the western periphery of synoptic scale surface
   high pressure, west of a mid-level ridge axis. This moist axis is
   also glanced by the eastern periphery of a steeper mid-level lapse
   rate plume, contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across the Ozark
   Valley. While weak, unidirectional tropospheric flow/shear will
   limit overall convective organization, stronger instability will
   foster continued development of pulse-cellular to occasional
   multicellular storm structures. 

   Water loaded downdrafts may promote gusty winds with the stronger
   cores, with a couple damaging gusts possible. Given the overall
   magnitude of instability (especially within the 700-500 mb layer) a
   couple instances of marginally severe hail may also occur despite
   the overall lack of organization expected. Instances of severe
   wind/hail are expected to be isolated overall, and a WW issuance is
   not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34469372 34219442 34219499 34649527 35489492 38079390
               38739362 38609277 38399164 37669151 36449269 35199348
               34469372