Mesoscale Discussion 0708
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0307 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 242007Z - 242130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to form along the
   dryline soon. Large hail (some very large) and damaging winds will
   be the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Cu have started to form along the dryline in the last
   hour as the dryline circulation has strengthened with temperatures
   in the upper 80s to low 90s west of the dryline with temperatures in
   the 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s east of the dryline. Expect
   updrafts to become more vigorous in the next hour as ascent from the
   mid-level shortwave starts to overspread the region. Early evidence
   of this can be seen northwest of LBB as towering cumulus have
   expanded ahead of a mid-level cirrus streak likely indicating the
   leading edge of better ascent. MLCAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/kg
   east of the dryline (per SPC mesoanalysis) with additional
   destabilization expected as the boundary layer warms and low-level
   flow backs and advects richer low-level moisture northwestward. This
   moderate to strong instability and very steep mid-level lapse rates
   (9 to 9.5 C/km per SPC mesoanalysis) will support explosive updraft
   development and a threat for large and very large hail in addition
   to severe wind gusts. 

   The primary limiting factor to a greater severe threat is the modest
   shear across the region with effective shear around 25 to 30 knots.
   This will likely lead to a combination of multicells and supercells
   with eventual upscale growth into one or more linear segments with
   primarily a wind threat. 

   The most pronounced low-level backed flow is currently near Lubbock
   and is expected to back even further through the evening. This will
   lead to a somewhat enhanced tornado threat, especially with any
   supercells which have deviant southeast or southward movement.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32930304 32900214 32990081 33970018 35219986 36729983
               37129998 37210117 36520148 35690197 34750242 34230255
               32930304