Mesoscale Discussion 0712
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...Central and Southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218...

   Valid 242228Z - 250030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop across parts of the
   western Texas Hill Country southward to Mexico border. Isolated
   large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats.
   Weather watch issuance will likely be needed to the southeast of WW
   218.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis has a dryline across west
   Texas with a moist airmass from the dryline eastward into central
   and southwest Texas. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s F which is
   contributing to strong instability with MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000
   J/kg, estimated by the RAP. A bowing line segments is ongoing on the
   northwestern edge of the stronger instability. This line will move
   eastward out of WW 218 around 00Z. Wind damage and hail will likely
   accompany the stronger convection within the line. In addition,
   strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing in northern Mexico. These
   storms will move eastward across the Rio Grand into southwest Texas
   over the next couple of hours. The forecast sounding at Laredo,
   Texas for early evening has 0-6 km shear of 35-40 kt with some
   directional shear in the low-levels. This will be favorable for
   supercells with isolated large hail. With a sickle-shaped hodograph,
   an isolated tornado threat could also develop. The severe threat
   southeast of WW 218 will likely neccesitate the issuance of an
   additional watch across parts of the western Texas Hill Country and
   southwest Texas.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31060071 30490113 29990132 29430099 28620039 27259950
               27289881 27569822 28159807 29599845 30899903 31089955
               31060071