Mesoscale Discussion 0713
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...far South Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242331Z - 250130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving onshore may pose a risk for a brief
   tornado this evening. A weather watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A weak sub-tropical low passing near the Florida
   Straits is driving easterly flow across much of the peninsula and
   keys. Thunderstorms ahead of this low have shown occasional
   low-level mesocyclones. A very moist environment with temperatures
   and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, is supporting weak MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg. Model forecast soundings show deep easterly wind
   profiles in the low and mid-levels are enlarging hodographs
   slightly. This will likely support a few rotating updrafts through
   this evening. A brief tornado will be possible, but the threat is
   expected to remain very isolated, and a watch is not expected.

   ..Lyons.. 05/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26238210 26348190 26358170 26148114 25918076 25548021
               25157993 25018000 24618055 24448123 24398190 24468241
               24748245 24888199 24968153 25068149 25178147 25318147
               25518149 25698167 25858188 26238210