Mesoscale Discussion 0716
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Colorado southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...221...

   Valid 250006Z - 250130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220, 221
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A supercell across Baca Couty, Colorado will likely
   continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across the
   southeast portions of WW220 for the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...A well developed supercell is ongoing in a post frontal
   upslope flow regime across Baca County, Colorado. Surface dewpoints
   in the low 50s F are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical
   shear of 40 to 50 kt is favorable for a discrete supercell mode. The
   background environment, and radar MESH indications of 2+ inch
   diameter hail suggest this storm is likely to continue to produce
   severe hail and wind for several hours. This will take it out of the
   WW220 into the western portions of WW221. Hi-res guidance and
   current trends suggest this cell will likely merge with convection
   developing over the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas later this
   evening.

   ..Lyons.. 05/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37040102 37030308 37670309 37920117 37780103 37140102
               37040102