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Mesoscale Discussion 0717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...Texas Coastal Plains...South Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...
Valid 250121Z - 250315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to develop across the eastern
Texas Hill Country and Texas Coastal Plains over the next few hours.
Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery shows a large MCS located
across western and central Texas. The southern part of the MCS
consists of a continuous line of strong to severe storms from the
southern Texas Hill Country southward to the Rio Grand, along an
axis of strong instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE along this
corridor from 3500 to 4000 J/kg. The GRK WSR-88D VWP shows 40 kt of
0-6 km shear with directional shear in the lowest 1 km AGL. This
wind profile will support a severe threat with the more intense
parts of the line. Wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will
exist with rotating storms embedded in the line and with bowing line
segments. Hail will also be likely the stronger cores. The line will
move toward the edge of WW 222 over the next hour, necessitating
watch issuance across the Texas Coastal Plains.
..Broyles.. 05/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 29119881 27889908 27269910 26829885 26749807 27019743
27739713 28529631 29689617 30359798 29119881
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