Mesoscale Discussion 0722
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Wisconsin into the upper
   peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251559Z - 251700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually increase and intensify further
   while overspreading the region through 1-3 PM CDT.  Barring signs of
   more substantial upscale growth and well-defined organization, a
   severe weather watch is unlikely, but activity may continue to be
   accompanied by a risk for occasional (mostly marginally) severe hail
   and locally strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Insolation within a relatively moist boundary layer
   (lower/mid 60s F) already appears to be contributing to mixed-layer
   CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg, ahead of subtle north-northeastward
   advancing short wave impulse.  This impulse is slowly progressing
   into and around the crest of larger-scale mid-level ridging, and may
   gradually take on more of an eastward component into the upper Great
   Lakes region through mid/late afternoon.

   Associated forcing for ascent probably is contributing to the
   ongoing increase in thunderstorm development, which seems likely to
   persist and may gradually intensify further, aided by increasingly
   unstable updraft inflow.  Deep-layer shear appears generally modest
   around 30+ kt, but may be locally enhanced up to 40 kts, in
   association with an embedded mid-level speed maxima.
   This may be sufficient to contribute to organization as convection
   continues to gradually grow upscale through 18-20Z.  If this occurs,
   a more general increase in potential for strong surface gusts
   approaching severe limits could evolve.  Otherwise, severe weather
   potential probably will remain limited to occasional marginally
   severe hail and localized strong wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45949149 46419050 46638868 46358692 45568650 44378846
               44258951 44959067 45099206 45949149