Mesoscale Discussion 0723
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Areas affected...Southeastern Florida Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251659Z - 251830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...There will be a damaging wind and brief tornado/waterspout
   threat on the southeast Florida coast through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Several showers and occasional thunderstorms are moving
   along the southeast Florida coast and will continue to do so through
   the afternoon. The 12Z MFL RAOB shows very deep moisture through the
   tropopause with PWAT of 2.19". Effective shear of 27 knots per 12Z
   sounding will support some storm organization and updraft rotation.
   Low-level turning per AMX VWP will support a marginal
   waterspout/tornado threat along the southeast Florida coast through
   the day. However, flow at 925 mb has weakened considerably in the
   last 2-3 hours which is a limiting factor to a greater
   tornado/waterspout threat. Nonetheless, 17Z velocity data from KAMX
   shows weak rotation with the weak shower just south of Miami and
   stronger rotation with the cell farther offshore southeast of Key
   Largo where instability is greater. Expect similar showers and
   storms through the day to travel northward near the southeast
   Florida coast with occasional weak rotation.

   The marginal low-level shear profile and the propensity for most
   cells to remain offshore will likely preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   26248027 26548020 26647988 26267969 25587974 24968000
               24848022 25068040 25678038 26248027