Mesoscale Discussion 0724
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Western Arkansas...and far
   northeastern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251850Z - 252015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two
   increases through the afternoon. Radar trends will be monitored for
   a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...A well defined MCV can be seen in the surface obs and
   visible satellite data in eastern Texas. The airmass north and east
   of this MCV has destabilized with temperatures in the upper 70s to
   low 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s yielding MLCAPE around 1000 to
   1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms have started to form in this unstable
   airmass across far northeast Texas. Thunderstorm mode/organization
   will likely be messy given the widespread storm development and
   marginal effective shear around 20 to 25 knots per area VWPs.
   However, despite the messy storm mode, a localized more favorable
   airmass in in place across southeastern Oklahoma and far western
   Arkansas. Mostly sunny skies have allowed temperatures to warm into
   the low 80s while surface winds have backed due easterly. This
   backed surface flow has nearly 90 degrees of turning in the lowest 1
   km per the KSRX VWP yielding 0-1 SRH over 150 m2/s2. The messy storm
   mode should be a limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat,
   but some locally damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two may be
   possible with any more organized updrafts in the region.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33139469 33569547 33999568 34819551 35759513 35929437
               35679356 34029318 32689389 33139469