Mesoscale Discussion 0725
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Areas affected...Most of Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251915Z - 252045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind gust is possible this afternoon
   and evening, primarily across western Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...A convective temperature of 80F from the 12Z KSGF RAOB
   has been reached across much of Missouri with subsequent scattered
   storm development. MLCAPE ranges from 2000 J/kg in eastern portions
   of the state to 500 J/kg along the Kansas border. The best chance
   for a few damaging wind gusts will be in western Kansas where
   sufficient instability exists (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updraft
   growth and effective shear is around 30 knots per KSGF VWP to
   promote some storm organization. In addition, 30 knots of flow at 1
   km was observed on the 12Z SGF RAOB and is currently being sampled
   near the same intensity on the KSGF VWP. This moderate flow above 1
   km will promote a threat for strong 40-50 mph wind gusts with the
   stronger cells which may be capable of isolated wind damage across
   the region. 

   In eastern Missouri, widespread storms are ongoing amidst 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. An isolated downburst threat will exist given the magnitude
   of the instability, but storms will likely struggle to organize
   given 15 to 20 knots of effective shear.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40539302 40579179 39239085 37649051 36859131 36559223
               36539293 36609433 37839461 39199467 39989455 40329434
               40539302