Mesoscale Discussion 0730
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0559 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252259Z - 260130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across northeast Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas over the next couple of hours. The threat is
   expected to remain isolated but weather watch issuance still could
   be needed depending upon how the situation unfolds.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows an arching band of
   thunderstorms located from near Tulsa southeastward to about 50
   statute miles south of Fort Smith, Arkansas. Several discrete cells
   are located to the north of this band where surface winds are backed
   to the north and east. The Fort Smith WSR-88D VWP shows strong
   directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL with 0-6 km shear near 30
   kt. 0-3 km storm relative helicity is just above 200 m2/s2
   suggesting enough low-level shear is in place for a tornado threat.
   Small supercells will continue to be possible across northeast
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where instability should be
   sufficient for an isolated severe threat for a few more hours this
   evening. Weather watch issuance could be needed if additional
   rotating storms develop.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36779625 36619652 36339648 36149633 35739553 34579431
               34419388 34629369 35299365 35889385 36499438 36839494
               36869591 36779625