Mesoscale Discussion 0731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Areas affected...Rio Grande and South Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 260025Z - 260130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A recent uptick in convective activity has been noted
   across the Texas Big Bend Region. Storms in northern Mexico are
   likely to cross the international border and grow upscale into an
   MCS this evening. Severe hail and wind will be likely, and a watch
   will be needed within the hour.

   DISCUSSION...A slow moving, mid-level shortwave trough is helping to
   increase convective coverage across the eastern Mexican Plateau, and
   Texas Big Bend Region. Mid-level flow ahead of the wave is
   supporting long straight hodographs with 35 to 40 kts of effective
   shear on proximity RAP soundings. Given the ample instability,
   2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, organized multicells and splitting
   supercells are likely to continue across the area. Hail will be the
   initial threat with stronger storms, but upscale growth appears
   likely with storm motion vectors paralleling a stalled front/outflow
   boundary across south Texas. This suggests an MCS will likely
   develop with a threat for damaging winds through this evening. A
   watch is likely needed within the hour.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30360239 30430016 30259925 29759772 29019698 28899690
               27649705 27209742 27099822 27149940 27339981 28250042
               29210089 29580147 29690247 30090282 30360239