Mesoscale Discussion 0737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

   Areas affected...South central and southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262149Z - 262315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms along and behind a slow moving cold front across
   south central Texas may pose a brief risk of marginally severe hail
   or wind. Storm coverage is forecast to remain isolated, and a watch
   is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough rotating around a slow moving upper
   low across the Southern Plains is helping to drive isolated
   convection along a sagging cold front in south central Texas. Cold
   500 mb temperatures of -15 to -16C, and surface dewpoints in the
   lower to middle 60s F are supporting MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg
   along the front. Mid-level flow is displaced southward from the
   ongoing convection, with SPC mesoanalysis indicating only 25-35 kt
   of effective shear near the front. This suggests that some severe
   potential, mainly in the form of marginally severe hail and wind, is
   possible with organized multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell.
   Hi-res guidance shows storms should move mostly east southeast with
   the front, and weaken near sunset. The relatively brief window for a
   sustained severe threat and the limited areal coverage suggest a
   watch is not needed.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29519865 30279755 30749598 30949497 30579480 30029486
               29509572 29229638 28869739 28909797 29209879 29519865