Mesoscale Discussion 0738
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0602 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northeastern IA into
   eastern MN and western WI

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 229...

   Valid 262302Z - 270030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and strong/gusty wind threat continues
   across parts of north-central Iowa and vicinity. The need for a
   downstream watch into portions of eastern Minnesota and western
   Wisconsin remains unclear.

   DISCUSSION...Low-topped storms in north-central IA have shown
   occasional low-level rotation over the past couple of hours to the
   northeast of a weak surface low. A front extending northeast of this
   low should remain a focus for additional storm development this
   evening, and the western extent of any appreciable severe risk
   across MN. Recent VWPs from KMPX and KARX both show a generally
   unidirectional, southerly wind profile above 1 km. This flow does
   strengthen modestly with height through about 6 km AGL, which is
   contributing to around 30-35 kt of mainly speed shear. The potential
   for low-level rotation in any ongoing storms remains somewhat
   limited by the lack of greater curvature in the 0-1 km layer. But,
   there may still be enough 0-1 km SRH (around 100 m2/s2) to support a
   continued isolated tornado threat in the short term. A loosely
   organized cluster of storms moving northeastward across southeastern
   MN into western WI may also pose an isolated strong/gusty wind
   threat, as both low-level lapse rates and instability remain
   maximized across these areas. The potential for a downstream watch
   into parts of eastern MN and western WI this evening will be
   monitored closely, and will be largely dependent on signs of
   increasing convective intensity/organization.

   ..Gleason.. 05/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42549330 43539376 44259359 45349260 46049172 46029084
               45699028 44929046 42869105 42339163 42269272 42549330