Mesoscale Discussion 0739
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1208 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271708Z - 271915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The initiation of severe thunderstorm development has
   seemed more probable later this afternoon near or north of the
   Edwards Plateau vicinity.  However, further increase and
   intensification of thunderstorms now south of the Dallas-Forth Worth
   Metroplex seems probable, and could be accompanied by increasing
   risk for severe hail and wind to the west of the Interstate 45
   corridor through 19-21Z.  Trends are being monitored for the
   possibility of a severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development to the south of the
   Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex probably has been aided by an initial
   area of strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent associated with
   an impulse pivoting around the larger-scale south central Plains
   mid-level low.  This appears to have been supported by relatively
   weak CAPE, due to seasonably modest low-level moisture around the
   Metroplex.  And model output has indicated a greater convective
   signal with a forecast increase in forcing for ascent with another
   perturbation, roughly around the Abilene/San Angelo/Brownwood areas
   during the 19-21Z time frame.

   However, southeast of the ongoing storms, heating of a more moist
   boundary layer (with mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) is already
   well underway, with mixed-layer CAPE likely to continue to increase
   in excess of 2000 J/kg through early to mid afternoon.  Increasing
   southeasterly inflow of this air, beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly
   500 mb flow, probably will support substantive further updraft
   intensification, and upscale convective growth over the next few
   hours.  This may be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail,
   and favorable shear could contribute to the evolution of an
   increasingly organized convective system with potential for
   producing strong wind gusts, near/west of the Interstate-45
   corridor.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31499734 31549659 30089517 29289631 31199897 32059829
               31499734