Mesoscale Discussion 0740
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

   Areas affected...The central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271716Z - 271845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered multicells are expected to continue through the
   afternoon with a threat for damaging winds and large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed this morning across
   southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and southern Alabama.
   Expect additional storms to continue to form throughout the day in
   the same region. MLCAPE has increased to around 2000 J/kg amid
   temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. The
   12Z LIX RAOB and 17Z VWP shows mid level flow around 35 knots which
   has yielded effective shear around 35 to 40 knots in the region.
   This will support some updraft organization with mostly multicell
   clusters and occasional transient supercell structures possible.
   Weak flow in the lowest 3 km will be the primary limiting factor to
   a greater severe weather threat, but given the moderate instability
   and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km (per 12Z LIX RAOB) some
   strong downbursts and occasional large hail are possible. The
   damaging wind threat may be enhanced in any regions where localized
   clustering can create a cold pool and enhance the damaging wind
   threat. However, winds will still likely be mostly sub-severe given
   the aforementioned weak lower tropospheric flow.

   In addition, the best organized convection at this time is currently
   in southwest Alabama and will be moving into a more hostile
   environment with warmer temperatures aloft and a cooler boundary
   layer due to morning clouds. Therefore, this activity is likely near
   its peak intensity at this time.

   Organization of additional storms developing across southeast
   Louisiana and southern Mississippi will continue to be monitored
   through the afternoon, and if a more organized severe weather threat
   materializes a watch may need to be considered.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29679215 31579138 33058940 33728796 33508645 31738560
               30508547 30058570 29728665 29488810 29018893 28938993
               29189122 29679215