Mesoscale Discussion 0742
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 271744Z - 271945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development appears increasingly
   probable through 2-4 PM, accompanied by the risk for large hail and
   strong wind gusts.  A watch likely will be issued within the next
   couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating and boundary-layer mixing is
   underway beneath warmer elevated-mixed layer air across the Permian
   Basin. This is contributing to a zone of stronger differential
   surface heating across the South Plains into Edwards Plateau region,
   along lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is becoming focused,
   coincident with lingering relatively moist and destabilizing
   boundary layer.  Through mid to late afternoon, mixed-layer CAPE
   appears likely to increase to 1000-2000+ J/kg, in the presence of
   steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.

   Weakening inhibition for boundary-layers parcels, coupled with lift
   associated with the warm advection, and perhaps differential
   cyclonic vorticity advection associated with a perturbation pivoting
   around the southern Plains mid-level low, seem likely to support the
   initiation of thunderstorm activity.  Various model output appears
   generally consistent that this will occur in the 19-21Z time frame,
   somewhere near/east of Abilene and San Angelo.  Southwestward
   advancing outflow from convection south of the Dallas-Fort Worth
   Metroplex could also become a focus.

   Once storms initiate, within a favorably sheared 30-40 kt
   northwesterly mean ambient flow regime, the environment likely will
   be conducive to organized severe storm development.  This probably
   will include supercells initially, and eventually, an upscale
   growing, increasingly organized convective system with increasing
   potential to produce severe wind, in addition to large hail.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32569975 32359854 31739794 31459749 30399768 30880010
               32190074 32569975