Mesoscale Discussion 0743
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Vermont...Northern New Hampshire...and
   western/northern Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271827Z - 272000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm or two is expected through the
   afternoon. Occasional damaging winds are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Unseasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low
   90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s have led to weak instability from
   northern New York through northern Maine. Warm temperatures aloft
   (around -9C at 500mb per 12Z ALB/CAR RAOB) are the primary limiting
   factor to greater instability. Despite this, storms have developed
   from terrain circulations over the mountains of VT/NH and ahead of a
   weak shortwave moving toward northern Maine. Storm motion is very
   slow and shear is weak (< 15 knots) given the weak tropospheric
   flow. Therefore, storm organization will likely be limited, but the
   steep low-level lapse rates and well-mixed sub cloud layer will
   support some strong downbursts. As a result, a few isolated damaging
   wind gusts are possible, especially with any stronger storms.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   44197313 45227153 46147039 47356951 47536843 47356776
               46856722 45706802 44597011 43997108 43587231 43767293
               44197313