Mesoscale Discussion 0746
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of west central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

   Valid 272040Z - 272215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Intensifying storms will pose increasing risk for severe
   hail and wind while spreading southeastward across the region
   through 5-6 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete vigorous thunderstorm development is well
   underway across the Abilene and San Angelo area, where 2-hourly
   surface pressure falls (around 2 mb) and low-level convergence has
   become focused near a developing thermal low.  This is also along
   the western flank of a remnant surface front, which is being
   reinforced by convective outflow farther east, north of Austin.

   The boundary-layer along/southwest of these boundaries has become
   deeply mixed, but with sufficient moisture to support CAPE of
   1000-2000 J/kg in the presence of steep lapse rates.  Aided by
   strong deep-layer shear, one or two storms may intensify into more
   substantive supercells during the next hour or two, posing
   increasing risk for large hail, and locally strong downburst winds. 

   Into the 22-23Z time frame, forcing for ascent associated with
   low/mid-level warm advection and consolidating surface cold pools
   may begin to contribute to upscale growth and the evolution of an
   organizing convective system.  This is expected to tend to propagate
   along and southwest of the surface boundaries, toward the Hill
   Country, accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface
   gusts

   ..Kerr.. 05/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31900066 32649949 32199893 31249804 30539763 30259860
               30989944 31900066