Mesoscale Discussion 0748
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

   Areas affected...southern and central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272300Z - 280100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A rain band moving onshore near the center of TD Bertha
   may pose a low risk for a brief tornado this evening. A watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...As of 5 pm EDT the center of Tropical Depression Bertha
   was located near 34.4N 80.3W, or about 55 miles east northeast of
   Columbia, South Carolina. NHC forecasts show Bertha will move slowly
   to the northwest through this evening. A rain band with weak
   embedded mesocyclones was moving onshore near the North/South
   Carolina border. SPC mesoanalysis and proximity RAP soundings show
   weak instability of 500 J/kg within proximity of the band. 100-150
   m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH may continue to support small rotating storms
   capable of a brief tornado as they move onshore. Shear profiles
   become less favorable as Bertha is forecast to move northward later
   this evening. This would suggest that any threat for a tornado would
   be relatively short lived, and a watch is likely not needed.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33797854 34287881 34717927 35047966 35228000 35418015
               35777989 35787951 35627887 35447854 35217817 34707781
               34177768 34007772 33737799 33797854