Mesoscale Discussion 0751
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...eastern Arkansas...and
   southwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281718Z - 281845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected through
   the afternoon. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible.

   DISCUSSION...The 12Z LZK RAOB showed a very weak low-level inversion
   and a convective temperature of 73F. As a result, early storm
   initation has occurred with scattered storms near the Mississippi
   River along the AR/MS border where temperatures have warmed into the
   upper 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This has yielded
   around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE according to SPC mesoanalysis. Some further
   destabilization is expected ahead of this activity, but will likely
   peak around 1500 J/kg before convection/convective debris limits
   further heating. Stronger mid-level flow is mostly south of this
   storm activity and thus shear is quite weak in the vicinity of these
   storms. However, cooler temperatures aloft, near the upper-low have
   led to slightly steeper lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) than elsewhere in
   the region. Therefore, some stronger storms are possible with the
   threat for isolated large hail and occasional gusty winds. However,
   the somewhat limited instability given the weakly sheared
   environment should limit the overall threat with watch issuance
   unlikely.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33909095 34419108 35528993 36078844 35238774 34148861
               33478963 33269059 33909095