Mesoscale Discussion 0752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0103 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

   Areas affected...Much of the Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281803Z - 282000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong storms expected through the afternoon
   across much of the Florida Peninsula. Isolated damaging winds are
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have started to form in a very
   unstable air mass across the northern Florida Peninsula. Additional
   storm coverage is expected southward along the Peninsula throughout
   the day as destabilization increases. Shear is extremely weak given
   less than 10 knots of flow below 10km. While this is not favorable
   for organized storms, this will support significant water-loading
   and the potential for wet microbursts as storm cores collapse.
   Additionally, mid-level lapse rates are steeper than normal across
   the region (near 7 C/km per RAP forecast soundings). This will also
   support stronger mid-level updraft accelerations leading to stronger
   updraft/downdraft pairs.

   A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely given the unorganized nature
   of the convection.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28218277 28878275 29438266 29738215 29728144 29448100
               28718074 28278058 27378028 26998029 26388057 26128110
               26198154 26968227 27548260 28218277