Mesoscale Discussion 0756
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0124 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of deep south TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290624Z - 290900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms moving slowly eastward may be capable of
   producing isolated strong/gusty winds for the next few hours. Watch
   issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A slow-moving MCS along/just west of the Rio Grande at
   0620Z has recently acquired a more eastward movement towards deep
   south TX, where a relative minimum in convective inhibition may be
   present per mesoanalysis estimates. There is some evidence of
   organization with this convection from recent KBRO radar imagery,
   with the northern portion of the line perhaps showing a developing
   MCV. The airmass across deep south TX remains rather unstable, with
   mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates
   supporting MUCAPE up to 3000-3500 J/kg. Regardless, both
   low/mid-level flow remain very weak across this region, which should
   limit the overall intensity of the MCS. Evidence of outflow from
   these storms surging several miles ahead of the higher reflectivity
   has recently been noted from KBRO. Still, isolated strong/gusty
   outflow winds capable of producing occasional damage cannot be ruled
   out over the next few hours given the large reservoir of instability
   present. Watch issuance will probably not be needed owing to
   negligible shear and related slow system movement.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 05/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26979944 27319955 27629943 27599922 27039862 26729808
               26579756 26199747 25909761 26029825 26249876 26399914
               26719928 26979944