Mesoscale Discussion 0759
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

   Areas affected...Central South Carolina and central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291637Z - 291830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms ongoing across the Carolinas are
   expected to continue through the mid afternoon hours. Most storms
   should remain below severe limits, but a few stronger storms may
   pose an isolated hail and damaging wind threat. A watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery show ongoing thunderstorms
   across the greater Carolinas region. These storms are largely being
   driven by broad upper level divergence associated with the right
   entrance region of a 60-80 knot upper-level jet. More locally,
   transient convection across eastern NC is focused along an outflow
   boundary that is propagating east/southeastwards towards the coast.
   To the south across north central SC, convection has become more
   organized due to 30-40 knots of effective bulk wind shear and
   slightly higher instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). 

   The clusters/segments of storms across SC will pose the threat for
   isolated hail and damaging wind as storms continue to move
   north/northeast through the afternoon hours. Although this
   convection will move into the cooler/slightly more stable cold pool
   from earlier convection, gradual clearing, per recent visible
   imagery, is already allowing temperatures to warm back into the mid
   70s. Air mass recovery should be sufficient enough to at least
   maintain the ongoing convection and a low-end risk of severe hail
   and damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms will be possible along
   the southern edge of the outflow boundary that is draped across
   southeast NC into northeast SC. While effective bulk shear is weaker
   in this region, limited cloud cover has allowed for increased
   instability that may support a brief hail threat with any stronger
   updrafts. Although a general increase in thunderstorm coverage is
   expected, the isolated and transient nature of the severe threat
   likely precludes a watch.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34118194 35098134 35668086 36377922 36007806 35297779
               34597771 34157823 33597960 33358041 33638137 34118194