Mesoscale Discussion 0761
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...far southwest Montana...and western
   Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292012Z - 292215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe wind
   into the early evening hours. Due to the isolated nature of the
   threat, a watch is not likely.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends over the past hour
   have shown a gradual increase in convective activity across
   southeast ID and western WY as well as developing cumulus across
   central ID. Although instability continues to increase via
   insolation, limited low and mid-level moisture along with weak
   forcing for ascent have largely stunted convective maturation thus
   far. An increase in thunderstorm activity is possible as low-level
   parcels continue to warm closer to their convective temperatures
   through late afternoon and ridge top convergence continues due to
   diurnal upslope flow. 

   If storms can become established in this environment, 25-35 knots of
   effective bulk shear across eastern ID into northwest WY, coupled
   with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, should support one or two strong
   thunderstorms. Steep, 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates and a dry 1-2
   km sub-cloud layer will pose the potential for downburst winds.
   Although deep layer shear is not overly strong, isolated instances
   of severe hail will be possible. In the near term, a severe risk is
   most likely across southeast ID where convective initiation is
   underway. Thunderstorm development will likely hold off for another
   1-2 hours further north across central/northeast ID and surrounding
   areas. Due to the limited coverage of storms a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   42141429 43111479 44061491 44911453 45481318 45251124
               44820964 44250841 43510770 42670828 42241017 42041146
               42141429