Mesoscale Discussion 0762
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of north central Pennsylvania into southern
   New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292054Z - 292300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few locally strong wind gusts may continue with
   convection overspreading the region through 6-8 PM EDT.  The need
   for a severe weather watch is now not anticipated, but trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Fairly vigorous thunderstorm development is being
   maintained along the leading edge of an east-northeastward advancing
   convectively generated surface cold pool.  Forward propagation is
   around 35 kt, largely parallel to the sheared 40-50 kt southerly
   deep-layer ambient mean flow.  With easterly low-level system
   relatively inflow emanating from boundary-layer air characterized by
   rather weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, substantive further
   intensification seems unlikely.  However, strong peak gusts
   approaching severe limits could persist with the convective system
   another couple of hours.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40967913 41457893 42097867 42527828 42717765 42377671
               41597704 40977804 40967913