Mesoscale Discussion 0766
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301825Z - 302000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
   through the afternoon hours. Most storms will remain below severe
   limits, but isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. A watch is
   not likely due to the isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KAKQ shows thunderstorms
   developing across parts of southeast VA along a diffuse surface
   trough/cold frontal zone. The gradual eastward propagation of the
   surface trough and an associated broad mid to upper-level wave, as
   well as outflow boundaries from prior convection, will continue to
   provide weak to moderate forcing for ascent through the afternoon.
   Continued daytime heating will maintain the 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   already in place along the southeast Atlantic coast. Despite
   sufficient instability, effective bulk shear should remain fairly
   weak (below 25 knots) for most locations except across northeast
   NC/southeast VA where slightly stronger mid-level flow is fostering
   25-35 knots of effective bulk shear. This improved shear should be
   enough to promote some storm organization, suggesting that a strong
   to severe storm or two is possible this afternoon. Steep 7-8 C/km
   low-level lapse rates and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg may allow for pockets
   of damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. Due to the limited
   nature of the severe threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37357856 37857805 37727714 36957601 36587592 36247621
               36087671 36247762 36677871 37357856