Mesoscale Discussion 0767
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far northeast Idaho...southern
   Montana...Wyoming...and northern Colorado.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301945Z - 302115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe hail
   and strong winds through the late afternoon hours. A watch is not
   likely due to the isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional satellite and radar imagery have shown
   a gradual increase in convective development from northeast
   ID/southwest MT southeastward across WY and into far northern CO.
   While MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg have become widespread
   from the Four Corners region northwestward into the interior West,
   deep layer shear favorable for organized convection is limited to
   the northern and northwestern portions of this unstable region.
   Low-level parcels continuing to warm closer to their convective
   temperatures and localized, terrain-induced convergence will promote
   additional isolated thunderstorms into the late afternoon. 30-35
   knots of effective bulk shear will support organization within
   storms that can reach maturation. While severe hail can not be ruled
   out, strong wind gusts will be the more likely hazard given 8-9 C/km
   low-level lapse rates, a dry 1-2 km sub-cloud layer, and DCAPE on
   the order of 1000 J/kg. Due to the expected isolated nature of
   storms and the associated severe risk, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

   LAT...LON   46021095 45320799 43710583 41230421 40570451 40400559
               40970633 42850762 43141005 43311142 44411281 45471262
               46021095