Mesoscale Discussion 0769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0533 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Virginia...northeast North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302233Z - 310000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are likely across
   southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina this evening.
   Marginally severe wind is the primary threat, but a watch issuance
   is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the Atlantic Coast
   from southeast Virginia down through Georgia as areas have reached
   their convective temperatures and along/ahead of a surface cold
   front. Surface temperatures into the 80s F and low 90s F with
   dewpoints in the mid 60s F to low 70s F have resulted in MLCAPE of
   1000-2000 J/kg. Shear is relatively weak across much of this area,
   although, mid-level winds have strengthened across the Mid-Atlantic
   in response to an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes. This may
   allow for stronger updrafts and some storm organization across
   southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, although,
   multicellular, outflow dominant convection is likely. Additionally,
   enhanced surface convergence near a surface low in this area will be
   a focus for convective initiation. Marginally severe winds are the
   primary threat, especially with steeper low-level lapse rates.
   Given, the isolated, marginal severe threat, a watch is unlikely.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35487672 35697753 36667783 37257755 37257667 36847584
               36337556 35777557 35407573 35487672