Mesoscale Discussion 0773
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Utah...southern Wyoming...and northern
   Colorado.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311818Z - 312015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for
   strong winds as they develop through the afternoon hours. Given the
   isolated and marginal nature of the risk, a watch is not likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing coverage and
   vertical depth of convective cumulus, as well as a few weak
   thunderstorms per recent GLM data, from northeast UT and western WY
   into central CO. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
   gradually increase through the mid afternoon hours as daytime
   heating warms parcels to their convective temperatures and
   orographic lift provides forcing for ascent. Although MLCAPE across
   this region is meager (250-500 J/kg), steep 8-9 C/km low-level lapse
   rates and a dry 1-2 km sub-cloud layer will support the potential
   for strong downburst winds. Additionally, 30-40 knots of effective
   bulk shear in place across northeast UT/western WY will aid in storm
   organization and increase the potential for severe winds. The
   expectation is for one or two strong to severe storms to occur as
   convection progresses east/northeastward through the day. Given the
   isolated and marginal nature of the threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   40981147 42081050 43250860 43220691 42540517 42030466
               41010458 40490525 40460677 40650762 40110895 39591014
               39371126 40131167 40981147