Mesoscale Discussion 0774
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

   Areas affected...north-central into northeast MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312029Z - 312230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm or two could produce gusty winds
   and hail across portions of north-central into northeast MT through
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of showers over Blaine County, in the vicinity
   of the surface trough/effective cold front, have shown some
   intensification on radar recently. Additionally, some vertical
   development has been noted in visible satellite imagery. This is
   occurring as inhibition across portions of east-central MT continues
   to weaken. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s with dewpoints
   generally from the mid 50s to low 60s ahead of the surface boundary
   and beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This is supporting MLCAPE
   around 500-1000 J/kg. Inhibition remains rather strong across
   northeast MT where more persistent mid/high level cloudiness has
   precluded stronger heating. Additionally, effective shear remains
   marginal across the region, around 20-30 kt. Nevertheless, a strong
   storm or two could develop as the surface boundary shifts eastward
   toward axis of greater instability. If this occurs, strong gusts and
   hail are possible. Given the conditional and isolated nature of the
   threat, a watch is unlikely.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 05/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   49010534 48300542 48010579 47880623 47770737 47800888
               48230906 48600914 48990884 49010534