Mesoscale Discussion 0776
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern Wyoming...southwest South
   Dakota...northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312143Z - 312345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple clusters of storms have developed across far
   eastern Wyoming and will continue moving eastward into southwest
   South Dakota and northwest Nebraska. Marginally severe hail/wind are
   possible with these storms. A watch issuance is unlikely given the
   isolated, marginal nature of the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is over the northern
   Rockies and multiple low-amplitude shortwaves are rotating around an
   upper high over Kansas/Oklahoma. A surface pressure trough extends
   southward across the northern/central High Plains, which is helping
   to focus surface convergence across eastern Wyoming as convective
   temperatures are breached this afternoon across the region. Slightly
   higher surface dewpoints (50+ F) are east of the surface trough, but
   storms should remain high-based with LCLs around 3 km AGL. MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 20-30 knots should allow
   for some updraft intensification with multi-cellular convective
   modes are likely. Storm splitting and outflow dominant storms are
   likely with damaging winds the likely main threat, although large
   hail is also possible with the stronger storms. Storms may continue
   to develop across eastern Wyoming into the evening before likely
   weakening over western South Dakota/Nebraska under higher mid-level
   heights/warmer mid-level temperatures.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40890352 41160471 43400504 44130513 44360419 44280309
               44030223 43700208 43220200 42630199 42030205 41280227
               40990277 40890352