Mesoscale Discussion 0777
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0838 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Montana through the western Dakotas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

   Valid 010138Z - 010315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind will
   persist next couple hours over the northern High Plains with the
   greatest threat from southwest ND into northwest SD.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have evolved into a small cluster across
   northwest SD into extreme southwest ND. A corridor of moderate
   instability with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE persists across the western
   Dakotas. Loss of heating is stabilizing the boundary layer,
   resulting in increasing convective inhibition with respect to
   surface-based parcels. However, a strengthening southerly low-level
   jet just downstream from a shortwave trough moving northeast through
   eastern MT may contribute to sufficient forcing to maintain the
   storm cluster through northwestern SD next couple hours. Other more
   isolated storms are developing over northeastern MT within zone of
   deeper forcing along the cold front, and this activity might also
   remain capable of producing a few instances of strong wind gusts and
   large hail next couple hours.

   ..Dial.. 06/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   44040313 44700399 46880470 47350420 46660257 44330243
               44040313