Mesoscale Discussion 0778
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

   Areas affected...east-central Minnesota and portions of far
   northwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011644Z - 011745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A pair of storms will continue to move to the southeast
   and may occasionally produce hail up to one inch. Since only a
   localized/marginal threat, and a gradual weakening trend, is
   expected a watch is not likely.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KMPX and KDLH show a pair of
   weak supercells that are translating southeastward across eastern
   MN. A couple of reports of 1 inch hail have been associated with
   these storms within the past hour. Despite low-end MUCAPE (only
   around 500 J/kg per RAP mesoanalysis), 30-40 knots of effective bulk
   shear have compensated for the lack of instability - as suggested by
   transient signs of a mesocyclone in recent radar data. However,
   recent trends in visible/IR satellite imagery, as well as composite
   reflectivity and MRMS vertically integrated ice, suggest a gradual
   weakening trend with these storms. This is likely due to storm
   motions out of the area of more favorable instability into a more
   stable air mass to the south and east. 

   The near-term expectation for these storms is to continue this
   gradual weakening trend. However, given continued forcing for ascent
   via mid-level warm advection and favorable deep-layer shear, a
   stronger updraft pulse can not be ruled out and may be capable of
   briefly producing severe hail. Given the isolated and marginal
   nature of the threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46299384 46429330 46179256 45929194 45579225 45609278
               45739315 46009389 46299384