Mesoscale Discussion 0779
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MT...southern ND...and
   northern SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020956Z - 021230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may pose an isolated threat for large hail and
   perhaps strong/gusty winds early this morning. Watch issuance is
   unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to progress
   eastward across the northern Plains and AB/SK over the next few
   hours. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature is beginning to
   overspread a reservoir of mainly elevated instability extending from
   southeastern MT into the Dakotas. Steep mid-level lapse rates
   present on the 00Z observed soundings from BIS and UNR likely remain
   across much of the Dakotas early this morning. MUCAPE rapidly
   increases with southward extent across SD, but developing convection
   should tend to stay closer to the elevated instability gradient from
   far southeastern MT and extending eastward along/near the ND/SD
   border. Strong effective bulk shear exists across this region owing
   to a 45-55 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave
   trough. Any storms that can persist in this environment should
   acquire supercellular characteristics given the strong shear, with
   an associated large hail threat. The damaging wind threat may remain
   more limited owing to a fairly stable boundary layer to the north of
   a weak front draped east/west across SD, but strong/gusty winds
   cannot be ruled out. Current expectations are for overall storm
   coverage to remain rather isolated. Accordingly, watch issuance will
   probably not be needed.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45120405 45380475 46180467 46600401 46860305 46750137
               46560017 46129968 45419975 45060044 45030195 45120405