Mesoscale Discussion 0780
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern ND...northern SD...and far
   west-central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021242Z - 021415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may pose an isolated large hail and wind
   threat as they move eastward this morning. A watch will probably not
   be needed, but trends will be closely monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms across far south-central ND should
   continue eastward in tandem with a shortwave trough over the
   northern Plains and central Canada. Steep mid-level lapse rates were
   observed on the 12Z ABR sounding, along with around 40 kt of
   effective bulk shear. An elevated instability gradient exists
   roughly parallel to the ND/SD border and into west-central MN. These
   storms may persist for the next couple of hours as they move along
   this gradient. 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE coupled with sufficient shear
   for continued supercell structures suggests that storms may not
   weaken as quickly as most recent short-term convection-allowing
   model guidance would suggest. An isolated large hail threat
   continues in the near term with the lead supercell in south-central
   ND. Even though locations downstream of this storm are to the north
   of a weak surface front, clear skies should allow for diurnal
   heating and some steepening of low-level lapse rates over the next
   couple of hours. Strong to perhaps occasional severe/damaging winds
   may occur if this convection can become surface based. At this
   point, it remains unclear if the overall coverage of storms will
   increase enough to warrant watch issuance. Observational trends will
   continue to be closely monitored.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46060098 46629943 46789849 46779722 46709643 46539558
               45909540 45229559 44949616 44929716 45240001 45670097
               46060098